Breaking Down Potential First Round Upsets

Before I start, I want to point out the unpredictability of the tournament.

I keep hearing that the Cinderella is dead and we won’t have many upsets.

No one predicted St. Peter’s to beat Kentucky, let alone make the Elite 8.

No one even predicted Ole Miss would make the SEC semifinals last week.

If we had 14, 15 and 16 seeds win first round games before, we will still have 11, 12 and 13 seeds win first round upsets now.

Upsets are upsets because no one sees it coming. That’s why I don’t include 10 over 7’s and 9 over 8’s in the potential first round upsets.

East Region

Northern Iowa over St. John’s

Did we forget that teams having success in their conference tournament usually is a bad omen in the NCAA’s?

St. John’s winning a weak Big East, being put in a 12 vs 5 game against an efficient Missouri Valley team sounds like an upset recipe to me. Bonus points if people don’t like it as an upset.

I wasn’t high on the Panthers following the MVC tournament, until I realized Tristan Smith, the former NAIA player of the year, missed a few weeks of the season. With him, UNI is 21-6. That includes a five point road loss against St. Mary’s.

Zuby Ejiofor will be tough to stop, but the backcourt has been a weakness for the Johnnies and UNI has good, consistent guard play with Trey Campbell. Campbell averages 14-4-4 for the Panthers. Smith with Virginia transfer Leon Bond III on the wing can shoot and bring the bigs out of the paint for cutting and spacing. Tristan Smith reminds me a lot of TJ McConnell in how he can bait bigs and shoot over them in the mid range.

UNI also leads the country in opponent PPG with 61. The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the country. Ben Jacobsen’s experience in the tournament will push the Panthers over the hump.

Verdict: I like the Northern Iowa upset over St. John’s. Actually, I like them more against Kansas in the second round. The Panthers are my cheat meal this bracket.

Cal Baptist over Kansas

I’ll admit Cal Baptist over Kansas is a bit of a stretch, but the Lancers have one of the best scorers in the tournament. Dominique Daniels scored 40+ points twice this season; once against top 85 NET team Utah Valley and against Utah Tech in the WAC semifinals. Daniels also hit back-to-back-to-back threes in the conference tournament final when his team was down eight with just over a minute to go. Martel Williams and Jayden Jackson add a combined 22 ppg. Cal Baptist would be a top mid-major team if their bigs weren’t as soft as Charmin. Flory Bidunga will be the center of the KU offense this game. Feels like the 2022 matchup between Kofi Cockburn and Illinois against Chattanooga.

If Cal Baptist keeps it within single digits, the Jayhawks could be in trouble.

Verdict: Kansas wins, but Cal Baptist keeps it closer than people think and Dominique Daniels scores 30+.

South Florida over Louisville

Everyone likes South Florida over Louisville. The backcourt duo of Penis (Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion) are playing well and Izaiyah Nelson is one of the best big men in the mid-majors. It’s rare to see a 6’10” stretch big at a mid-major school. My only problem is the pressure. USF is the resounding favorite to pull off an upset as if it’s a given. That’s motivation for the Cardinals and pressure on the Bulls.

NDSU over Michigan State

I have heard this trickle out there a little bit, but hasn’t gained traction.

I always think of the MTSU upset against Michigan State when I see the Spartans on this list.

It won’t happen. The Bison are an efficient team that is fundamentally sound and have two bigs that can actually matchup with the size of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper in Treyson Anderson (6’9”, 245 LBS.) and Noah Fedderson (6’10”, 245 LBS.).

Anderson only averages 18 minutes a game and Fedderson averages 21 minutes a game. Both only average 5 rebounds per game.

Kohler and Cooper average 27 minutes per game and a combined 16 rebounds per game.

NDSU also has to worry about Jeremy Fears Jr.

Michigan State will overwhelm the Bison in every aspect in the second half.

Verdict: NDSU keeps it close in the first half. Sparty pulls away in the second half.

South Region

McNeese over Vanderbilt

McNeese is a polarizing upset pick. People love them or people love Vanderbilt.

Vandy is a dangerous team. The Commodores have scorers on the perimeter in Tyler Tanner, Tyler Nickel and Duke Miles. The trio averages 49.1 ppg and each shoot 85.9% or better from the free throw line.

AK Okereke is a stretch 4 that shoots 38% from three and two bigs in Devin McGlockton and Jalen Washington that split time in the paint.

The best chance McNeese has at winning this game is owning the style of play.

If the Pokes can pick up the pace, they have a chance. McNeese likes to press and play five out. They rely on chaos and transition points. Vandy has too much athleticism at the 4 and 5 for me to feel comfortable taking the upset.

Verdict: McNeese comes out fast. Vandy fights back late in the first half and in the second half to win.

Troy over Nebraska

Troy checks one of my boxes in the upset checklist. Tournament experience. The Trojans returned a lot of players from last year’s team. Nebraska also has pressure to win their first tournament game in history.

I can’t take Troy seriously with how they managed the Sun Belt schedule. The Trojans went 12-6 in one of the weaker conferences in America. They have four players averaging 12.7 PPG or more, but Thomas Dowd averages 10.1 RPG at 6’8” and 225 LBS. Troy has multiple scorers, but they don’t have the depth or size to keep up with the Cornhuskers.

Verdict: Troy keeps it interesting. Nebraska pulls away late.

VCU over North Carolina

VCU is created like a power conference team. They have the depth and athleticism to make a run in the tournament. Lazar Djokovic, Michael Belle and Barry Evans can play in the paint or on the perimeter. That front court matches up well against Henri Veesaar and the Tar Heel front court without Caleb Wilson.

There isn’t a drop off at guard either. Terrence Hill, Jadrian Tracey, Nyk Lewis and Brandon Jennings split the responsibility in the back court. Seven players average at least 22 minutes per game and at least seven points per game.

VCU is the most likely double-digit seed to make it to the second weekend.

Verdict: VCU beats North Carolina in a close game. The Rams could even make it to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

West Region

High Point over Wisconsin

Wisconsin is one of the few teams in the gray area for me. That gray area is the teams that can lose the first round or make the final four.

High Point has veteran players and three-point shooters. Senior Chase Johnston shoots 48.5% from three and senior Owen Aquino shoots 45.5% from three. Add bigs Cam’Ron Fletcher and Terry Anderson that averages double figures in scoring and at least six rebounds per game and you have a versatile team. The problem. The tallest player that gets consistent minutes is Aquino at 6’8”.

Wisconsin has Austin Rapp at 6’10” and Nolan Winter at 7’0” averaging 8.6 RPG. John Blackwell and Nick Boyd are hard enough to stop at a combined 39.6 PPG.

Verdict: High Point keeps it close. The killer B’s take over the game late and win it for Wiscy.

Texas over BYU

With the injury to Richie Saunders, this is not an upset.

Texas has a plethora of talent, they just didn’t finish the season well.

The tournament has a funny way of having the underdogs play their favorite and the favorites to clench up under pressure.

Texas will show up.

Verdict: This will be one of the best first round games. Texas wins a close one, but Dybantsa will do all he can to win it for BYU.

Midwest Region

Akron over Texas Tech

The Zips check more boxes on my checklist than any other mid-major AQ.

They check off previous tournament trips to draw upon. Coach John Groce is one of the best mid-major coaches and they have a veteran backcourt with power conference transfers in the front court.

Texas Tech doesn’t have JT Toppin and Christian Anderson is questionable.

Akron might not win one, but two games.

Verdict: Akron beats Texas Tech

Hofstra over Alabama

This is one of the toughest decisions.

It’s a clash of styles. Alabama likes to pick up the pace, while the Pride like to slow it down.

Aden Holloway being dismissed from the Crimson Tide makes this game a lot more interesting.

Hofstra’s strength is their backcourt.

Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead combined for 36.1 PPG.

Verdict: Alabama beats Hofstra. You don’t know how bad I want to choose Hofstra, but Alabama is just too talented. At least we would get Alabama against Akron in the Round of 32. First to a million wins!

Miami (OH) over Tennessee

It seems like people forget how bad SMU finished the season. The Mustangs lost to Stanford and Cal and finished 3-6 in their last nine games. I have a lot more faith in Miami (OH) than SMU.

The Redhawks are efficient and scoring is spread across the team. Miami (OH) is one of the best mid-majors and the discourse sounds like it’s mixed with a little hate.

Verdict: Miami (OH) is dangerous. I believe they lose in the Round of 32.

I also like Santa Clara over Kentucky. Herb Sendek’s squad has depth and can score from every position on the floor. I don’t see that as an upset.